Champions League 2024: Can PSG Achieve a Historic Three-Peat?

The Champions League anthem is about to roll around Europe again, and the road ends in Madrid on 5 June. One question hangs over the continent: can anyone rip the trophy away from Paris St-Germain?

PSG are chasing history. Two in a row already puts them among the modern greats; a third would carve them into a different tier altogether. The rest of Europe, including five English clubs, are lining up to stop them. Arsenal, beaten finalists last season, are being pushed to the front of that queue.

Can anyone stop PSG?

Julien Laurens does not see a three-peat.

“If PSG do the three-peat, it would be an incredible achievement. I don't think they will do it,” he says.

Two in a row, he argues, is special. Three? That usually requires a Cristiano Ronaldo-level guarantee of goals. PSG do not have that.

He still expects them to go deep. A semi-final at least. But the mountain gets steeper with every successful defence, and this version of PSG, reshaped and still evolving, looks more vulnerable than the one that first climbed it.

Guillem Balague points to the cracks already visible in their domestic form. An “irregular start” has underlined how hard it is to live at the same intensity for a third straight year. Luis Enrique continues to demand high-octane, high-press football, using the league phase as a laboratory for ideas. That will mean turbulence before January, some odd results, and perhaps doubts.

Yet the core is still there. Balague expects them “to get very close to winning it again”. The champions are wounded, not broken.

Arsenal, Bayern and the new order

If PSG do fall, Laurens sees Arsenal ready to pounce. He has them not just returning to the final, but winning it.

The logic is simple and ruthless: defence wins titles. Arsenal, in his eyes, have “the best defence in Europe by far”. That platform, built over the past two seasons, underpins their rise from nearly-men to genuine contenders. They know how to suffer, how to manage games, how to win regularly. The scars of last season’s final defeat could yet harden them.

Alongside them, Laurens places Bayern Munich. He has Bayern and Arsenal as the most deserving finalists of recent years outside PSG, and tips Bayern as “close runners-up” this time. Bayern’s pedigree is obvious; their evolution under a new structure and with Harry Kane as the focal point makes them ominous again.

Balague broadly agrees on the hierarchy. He sees Arsenal as a team that has finally shrugged off the weight of expectation. With that burden lifted, he believes their football will loosen, their talent will breathe. They should be in the semi-finals, he says, alongside PSG and Barcelona, “unless they meet before”.

The fourth semi-finalist? That, he feels, will come from Bayern, Real Madrid or Manchester City, depending on the draw. Three heavyweights, one vacant chair.

Barcelona rising, Real reshaped

Barcelona arrive with momentum. Balague describes them as “flying”. Hansi Flick would like another centre-back and a true number nine to complete the puzzle, but even without them, he feels they are climbing towards the summit. The identity is clear: aggressive defending high up the pitch, relentless work without the ball, and space for their young stars to shine.

Across Spain’s capital, Real Madrid are entering a different kind of experiment under Jose Mourinho. Laurens is not fully convinced by the project, but he sees one player perfectly placed to thrive: Jude Bellingham.

This season is huge for Bellingham, individually and collectively. Used as a number 10, he has the freedom to arrive in the box, dictate play and decide matches. Laurens expects the momentum from his excellent World Cup to carry through: goals, influence, big moments. Mourinho’s Real may divide opinion, but Bellingham looks set to dominate the narrative.

The players who could define the season

Laurens picks out five names to watch. Bellingham tops his list, but he is far from alone.

At Como, Nico Paz wears the number 10 and runs the show. It is the club’s first ever Champions League campaign, with Cesc Fabregas on the touchline. They play with ambition, with the ball, and Paz sits at the heart of it. He is “very much in the making”, Laurens says, but the feeling is clear: he is heading for the top.

Then there is “Mr Champions League” himself in Laurens’ eyes: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. Two outstanding seasons at PSG have turned the Georgian into one of the continent’s most devastating wide players. Off the left, he can go inside or outside, score with either foot, and embarrass full-backs. He is already in the Ballon d'Or conversation. He is the one who lifts fans off sofas.

In France, Lens are back on the big stage after pushing PSG all the way in Ligue 1. At the back, Ismaelo Ganiou stands out. Just 21, a strong, quick, ball-playing centre-back, he looks destined for the Premier League. Laurens expects a move at the end of the season.

Donyell Malen completes his quintet. Since leaving Aston Villa for Roma, he has exploded under Gian Piero Gasperini, scoring almost a goal a game as a lone striker. Roma’s return to the Champions League adds another attacking, front-foot side to the mix. Laurens believes this is Malen back at his best.

Balague’s own list starts with Kane. The Bayern forward is on a clear mission: the Ballon d'Or. Bayern’s style suits him perfectly, with service, structure and a constant presence in the final third. Balague does not see his level dropping.

At Barcelona, Lamine Yamal wants everything, and he wants it now. Still a teenager, he has set his sights on the Champions League. Flick’s high, passionate pressing game is designed to unleash him in transition and in tight spaces.

Kvaratskhelia appears again on Balague’s radar. He insists the Georgian has “another level” to reach, and with PSG likely to go far, he expects Kvaratskhelia to drag them through big nights and win huge games. In Balague’s mind, a future Ballon d'Or is not a matter of if, but when.

Shakhtar’s production line of Brazilian talent continues with 20-year-old Kaua Elias. The Ukrainian club has a long history of turning gifted Brazilians into major European transfers, and Balague sees Elias as the next in line.

Then there is Martin Odegaard. After a season disrupted by injuries, the Arsenal captain has started this campaign sharply. His team, more confident and hardened, will lean on his ability to control tempo and take responsibility. Balague believes he looks ready for that leadership.

New faces, new stories

Beyond the giants, the Champions League always throws up fresh names and unlikely journeys.

Balague is fascinated by what Fabregas is building at Como. The former Spain midfielder has turned down “interesting offers” to stay and develop his ideas. With relatively low external pressure, he has the freedom to experiment, to push his football to the edge. Balague sees a coach now firmly on the train of modern football, and right near the front. He expects Como to reach the knock-out stages in their debut campaign.

LASK, who knocked out Celtic, arrive with a clear competitive edge. They are unlikely to qualify, Balague admits, but a home win and a respectable points tally would represent a strong first showing at this level.

From Azerbaijan, Sabah bring organisation and structure, but face a brutal schedule: trips to Arsenal and Manchester United, home dates with Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund. Balague backs them to spring one or two surprises, but not enough to escape the group.

Then there is Viking. Drawn against Bayern, Atletico, Napoli and Aston Villa, they look outgunned on paper. Norwegian football, though, is full of sharp coaches and intelligent, competitive teams. Balague would not rule out a run to the knock-out rounds.

The road to Madrid

So where does that leave the race?

PSG, still chasing immortality. Arsenal, armed with Europe’s most miserly defence and a point to prove. Bayern, with Kane in Ballon d'Or mode. Barcelona, rising under Flick. Real Madrid, reshaped around Bellingham. Manchester City and others lurking, waiting for the draw to open a door.

The anthem will play, the cameras will pan across faces dreaming of Madrid. Someone will get there. Someone will climb the steps on 5 June and lift the trophy.

The only certainty now is that PSG will not be allowed to stroll to a third straight crown.