Dan Hooker Predicts Paddy Pimblett's Title Shot Against Justin Gaethje
Dan Hooker has seen enough of how the UFC does business to make a blunt prediction: Paddy Pimblett is getting another crack at Justin Gaethje – this time with the undisputed lightweight title on the line.
The New Zealander, a hardened veteran of the 155-pound division, believes the promotion’s matchmaking instincts and Gaethje’s star power are about to collide in Pimblett’s favor.
“He’s the champ, he can do whatever the (expletive) he wants… Some champs can’t, but Justin Gaethje can… For sure they’re just sliding Paddy Pimblett into a title fight, that’s probably what they’re gonna do,” Hooker told Submission Radio, cutting straight through the meritocracy argument that usually dominates these conversations.
From Upset Loss to Prime Position
Pimblett’s route back to the front of the line has been anything but straightforward.
In January at UFC 324, the Liverpool native walked into the main event against Gaethje as the favorite. The matchup was framed as Pimblett’s coronation, a passing of the torch moment that would push one of the UFC’s biggest lightweight attractions into interim title status.
Gaethje tore up that script.
He outworked Pimblett over five rounds, claimed a unanimous decision, and walked away with the interim lightweight belt. That win booked him a showdown with then-champion Ilia Topuria and briefly stalled the Pimblett hype train.
Then came UFC Freedom 250. Gaethje didn’t just beat Topuria; he shocked him. In one of the year’s standout performances, he ripped the belt away and cemented himself as the undisputed lightweight king, turning what had looked like a transitional reign into something far more substantial.
Pimblett, meanwhile, needed a statement. He found it at UFC 329.
Matched with the dangerous Benoit Saint Denis, the Englishman produced one of the most important performances of his career, snatching a stunning submission and snapping straight back into the win column. One loss to Gaethje suddenly looked less like an exposure and more like a stumble in a still-ascending run.
That’s the backdrop to Hooker’s prediction. A charismatic contender, a champion who moves the needle, and a promotion that has never been shy about doubling down on a marketable name.
Merit vs. Market
On pure sporting logic, the road to Gaethje should run through UFC 331’s co-main event between Arman Tsarukyan and Mauricio Ruffy. The winner there will have a strong case as the next in line at 155 pounds. If not them, a rematch with Charles Oliveira – riding a two-fight win streak and already a proven elite – fits the traditional merit-based model.
But the UFC rarely operates on rankings alone.
Pimblett is one of the biggest names in the division, arguably the biggest in terms of crossover appeal. The company has invested years in building him as a future title challenger, from carefully curated matchups to high-profile card placements. Even his loss to Gaethje came in a spot designed to elevate him, not test him quietly on the undercard.
When he failed to get past Gaethje at UFC 324, it was labeled an upset. He was “supposed” to win. That framing matters. It leaves the door wide open for a redemption narrative, especially now that he has rebounded with a highlight-reel submission over Saint Denis.
Hooker’s view taps into that reality. Gaethje, as champion, holds significant sway. The UFC, hungry for big events and louder headlines, has a ready-made story: the fan favorite who fell short, rebuilt, and now comes back for revenge against one of the most violent champions in company history.
Fans may grumble about the queue being skipped. Contenders may argue they’ve done more, beaten better names, taken harder roads. They might be right.
But the UFC’s track record is clear. When star power and timing align, the rankings often become background noise.
If Gaethje wants Pimblett, and the UFC wants Pimblett, the question isn’t whether the rematch can happen.
It’s how soon they’re willing to roll the dice on it.
