Jamal Murray's Path to All-NBA Status in 2026-27
Nikola Jokic is still the sun in Denver’s galaxy, but the Nuggets’ title clock is ticking louder now. His prime is no longer theoretical; it’s finite. If Denver plans to squeeze another championship out of this core, Jamal Murray has to deliver the best, most complete version of himself in 2026-27.
The projections say he just might. They also say there’s a price.
A changing shot diet – and Murray’s new role
Denver’s biggest problem last season wasn’t accuracy. It was volume.
The Nuggets took only 87.8 field goal attempts per game in 2025-26, 26th in the league. When they did shoot, they were devastating: 49.6 percent from the field (second in the NBA) and 39.6 percent from three (best in the league). They simply didn’t squeeze enough out of that efficiency.
That’s where Murray steps back into the frame.
Per Basketball Reference’s Per 36 projections for 2026-27, cleaned up into per-game estimates at his usual 35.4 minutes, Murray is expected to remain a high-level offensive engine. But not quite the same one. The arrival of DeMar DeRozan, a proven “bucket-getter,” changes the hierarchy.
Murray’s scoring is projected to dip from his career-high 25.4 points per game on 18.1 field goal attempts to 23.7 points on 17.5 shots. That’s a reduction, not a demotion. Denver is effectively swapping a couple of Murray looks for a career 21.1-point scorer who just came from Sacramento.
The Nuggets don’t need Murray to chase the scoring title. They need him to sharpen the edges of an offense that already shoots the lights out but doesn’t fire often enough.
Defensive upticks on the margins
The quieter story in the projections sits at the other end of the floor.
Murray is expected to post 4.3 rebounds and 0.5 blocks per game, both the second-best marks of his career. Those aren’t gaudy numbers, but they matter for a guard who will be asked to survive deep into playoff series against bigger, more physical backcourts.
The passing lanes tell an even better tale. Murray’s projected 1.1 steals per game would mark a return to his better defensive seasons, reflecting a more active, disruptive point-of-attack defender. For a team that often leans on Jokic’s positioning and IQ to clean up mistakes, a more opportunistic Murray at the top of the defense can tilt a few extra possessions their way.
In a West where margins will be thin, a couple of extra rebounds, a few more deflections, and an extra steal every other night are not footnotes. They’re swing factors.
Efficiency of an All-NBA guard
Where Murray really tightens Denver’s title profile is in the efficiency projections.
He’s expected to hit 42.1 percent from three, which would be the third-best mark of his career, and 47.9 percent from the field, also projected as his third-highest season. Those numbers align with the All-NBA Third Team form he showed in 2025-26 and keep Denver right where it wants to be: near the top of the league in shooting accuracy.
Put simply: Jokic bends the defense, and Murray punishes it. If he’s flirting with 48 percent from the floor and over 42 percent from deep, defenses cannot overload Jokic without paying a heavy price.
The Nuggets don’t just need Murray to score. They need him to score cleanly.
From scorer to full-time conductor
The most intriguing jump in Murray’s profile isn’t about points. It’s about control.
With DeRozan joining Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson, and Christian Braun, Denver suddenly has no shortage of mouths to feed. The ball has to move. It can’t always start and end with Jokic at the elbows.
Murray’s projected 6.7 assists per game would be the second-highest mark of his career, just shy of the 7.1 he posted in 2025-26. Given the firepower around him, that ceiling might not be far enough. If those teammates knock down shots at their expected clips, Murray has a real chance to surpass that 7.1-assist peak.
This evolution is critical because the backup plan at point guard is still settling in. Tyus Jones arrives with a reputation as a steady hand, but he’s coming off a 2.4-assist season after previously averaging 7.3 assists with the 2023-24 Washington Wizards. The version Denver gets this year will likely need time to emerge.
Until Jones fully acclimates, Murray isn’t just the starting point guard. He’s the offensive organizer, the tempo setter, the one who has to keep Denver’s structure intact when Jokic is off the floor.
If he embraces that role and hits those assist projections, the Nuggets’ offense becomes far less predictable and far harder to scheme out of a series.
The old ghost that won’t leave
There is, however, a catch.
High-usage guards who score, create, and live with the ball in their hands usually carry the same scar: turnovers. Murray is no exception, and the projections say that ghost is still riding shotgun.
He’s expected to average 2.3 turnovers per game, which would be a career-high and well above the 1.7-turnover average for point guards across the league. If that holds, it would mark the third time in nine seasons that Murray sets a new personal high in giveaways.
Context matters. Murray often serves as Denver’s primary scorer, late-game closer, and, at times, the lone offensive engine when Jokic sits. Usage at that level comes with risk. The problem for the Nuggets is that those mistakes often arrive in high-leverage moments against the best defenses in basketball.
Denver can live with aggressive turnovers born from ambition. It cannot afford careless ones, not in a conference stacked with rising contenders who will weaponize every extra possession.
The hope inside the Nuggets’ building has to be that Jones’ presence eases the burden on Murray, trims his most reckless stretches, and undercuts that 2.3-turnover projection.
Can this version of Murray be All-NBA again?
So, where does this leave the big question: can Jamal Murray climb back onto an All-NBA team in 2026-27?
The numbers argue he has the platform. Around 23.7 points, elite efficiency from three and from the field, upticks on the glass and in defensive activity, and roughly seven assists as the co-architect of one of the league’s most potent offenses. On a contender, that profile belongs on the All-NBA ballot.
But the bar is higher now. The guard pool is loaded, and team success still weighs heavily in those votes. For Murray, the path is narrow but clear: tighten the handle, trim the turnovers, and steer Denver back into the heart of the title race with Jokic still operating near his peak.
The projections say he’s on the verge of his most complete season. The question that will define Denver’s window is simple: can he turn those projections into the kind of ruthless, polished reality that keeps the Nuggets in the championship conversation while Jokic is still Jokic?
