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Newcastle vs Hull City Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

St. James' Park hosts an intriguing Premier League clash on 19 September 2026 as Newcastle welcome newly-resurgent Hull City. With just four games played, both sides are trying to establish their identity in the early weeks of the campaign, and this fixture already feels like a litmus test for their ambitions.

Newcastle sit 12th with 5 points from 4 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 8. They have been entertaining but defensively vulnerable, drawing both home games so far. Hull City, by contrast, have made a superb unbeaten start: 4th in the table with 8 points, 5 goals scored and only 2 conceded, hinting at a well-organised unit that travels well.

For fans looking for Newcastle vs Hull City prediction, H2H history and betting tips, this matchup offers a classic contrast of styles: Newcastle’s higher-tempo, attack-minded approach against a Hull side built on structure, clean sheets and efficiency in both boxes.

Newcastle vs Hull City Key Stats

  • Newcastle are 12th with 5 points from 4 games (1 win, 2 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 7 and conceding 8 in the Premier League.
  • The last meeting on 27 July 2024 saw Newcastle win 2-0 away at The MKM Stadium in a club friendly.
  • In 2026 Premier League statistics, Hull City have kept 3 clean sheets in 4 matches, conceding just 2 goals in total.

Newcastle vs Hull City — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 12 vs 4
  • Points: 5 vs 8
  • Goals For: 7 vs 5
  • Goals Against: 8 vs 2
  • Clean Sheets: Newcastle 1 (tournament statistics), Hull City 3 (tournament statistics)

The standings underline the different profiles of these two teams. Newcastle’s 7 goals in 4 matches (1.8 per game) show they carry real attacking threat, but 8 conceded (2.0 per game) have left them mid-table. Their home record is particularly telling: two draws from two at St. James’ Park with 4 scored and 4 conceded suggest entertainment but a lack of control.

Hull City’s early-season numbers are more balanced and arguably more sustainable. Sitting 4th with 8 points, they are unbeaten (2 wins, 2 draws) and have built that start on defensive solidity: 2 goals conceded in 4 games (0.5 per match) and 3 clean sheets. They have been solid both home and away, with 3 goals scored on their travels and only 2 conceded, indicating that their compact 5-4-1 shape is translating well on the road.

Newcastle vs Hull City Key Matchups

Y. Wissa vs M. Belloumi

Newcastle’s most influential attacking midfielder so far has been Yoane Wissa. In 4 Premier League appearances, he has 1 goal and 1 assist, with 7 shots (2 on target), 4 key passes and 11 fouls drawn. His high involvement in duels (61 total, 27 won) underlines how often he is at the heart of Newcastle’s attacking and transitional play, constantly engaging defenders and creating space for others.

For Hull City, Mohamed Elbachir Belloumi has been the standout creative force. Also with 4 appearances and 4 starts, he has 2 goals and 1 assist, making him directly involved in 3 of Hull’s 5 league goals. He has taken 8 shots (3 on target) and produced 3 key passes from 48 total passes, while contributing defensively with 10 tackles, 3 blocks and 9 interceptions. This duel between Wissa’s direct running and Belloumi’s all-round midfield influence could decide who controls the tempo in the final third.

O. McBurnie vs Newcastle back line

Oliver McBurnie has yet to score in the league but remains crucial to Hull City’s structure. In 4 appearances (352 minutes), he has 1 assist, 6 shots (3 on target) and 5 key passes. More importantly, he has contested 74 duels, winning 36, and drawn 9 fouls. His physical presence and hold-up play are central to Hull’s 5-4-1, allowing Belloumi and the midfield runners to join attacks. Up against a Newcastle defence that has conceded 8 goals and has struggled to keep clean sheets at home, McBurnie’s ability to occupy centre-backs and win aerials could be a major factor.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

The recent head-to-head record between these clubs is surprisingly rich across different competitions, though many of the clashes have been at Hull’s ground. Newcastle have often found joy going forward, while Hull have had their moments in cups and on the road.

  • 27 July 2024: Hull City 0-2 Newcastle (Friendlies Clubs)
  • 29 November 2016: Hull City 1-1 Newcastle (League Cup, Hull City won 3-1 on penalties)
  • 31 January 2015: Hull City 0-3 Newcastle (Premier League)
  • 20 September 2014: Newcastle 2-2 Hull City (Premier League)
  • 1 March 2014: Hull City 1-4 Newcastle (Premier League)

Newcastle vs Hull City Prediction

Stats suggest a clash between Newcastle’s attacking ambition and Hull City’s defensive resilience. Newcastle’s league form is mixed (1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss), with no home defeats but no home wins either. Their goals profile shows they are dangerous in multiple phases of the game, but conceding 2.0 per match leaves them vulnerable, especially against a side that transitions well.

Hull City arrive unbeaten with a strong recent form line and the best defensive record of the two. Their comparison indices lean heavily their way defensively (defence index 80 vs Newcastle’s 20) and in overall form (Hull 62 vs Newcastle 38). However, the betting markets strongly favour Newcastle at home, with home win odds ranging from 1.53 to 1.63 (implied probability roughly 61% to 65%), while Hull are priced between 4.76 and 5.49 (around 18% to 21%).

The prediction model gives Newcastle only a 10% chance of victory, with 45% each for draw and Hull win, pointing strongly towards a double chance on the visitors. Balancing market expectations with the underlying numbers, this looks like a tight, low-scoring contest where Hull’s structure and clean-sheet habit can frustrate Newcastle, but the home side’s attacking quality and St. James’ Park factor still matter.

Predicted Score: Newcastle 1-1 Hull City

Newcastle Recent Form

Newcastle’s recent Premier League form reads as inconsistent but competitive. Across their last four league matches they have 1 win, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 7 goals scored and 8 conceded. At home they have drawn both games, scoring 4 and conceding 4, underlining a pattern of open, end-to-end contests rather than controlled performances.

Hull City Recent Form

Hull City’s recent Premier League form has been impressive. They are unbeaten in four, with 2 wins and 2 draws, and have conceded just 2 goals in that span. Their clean-sheet tally of 3 from 4, combined with a balanced goals-for rate of 1.3 per match, paints the picture of a side that is difficult to break down but still capable of creating enough to win games.

Newcastle Possible Starting Lineup

GK options: N. Pope, M. Gillespie, Aidan Harris, L. Horníček, E. Jaouen; Defenders: S. Botman, D. Burn, A. Dedić, L. Hall, T. Livramento, F. Schär, M. Thiaw; Midfielders: Joelinton, L. Miley, J. Murphy, Nico González, Park Seung-Soo, J. Ramsey, Sean Steur, J. Willock, H. Barnes, M. Fernandez-Pardo; Attackers: A. Elanga, W. Osula, V. Salia, T. Sanusi, B. Touré, Y. Wissa.

Newcastle have depth across the pitch, particularly in attacking and wide areas. With a 4-2-3-1 used in all four league games, they are likely to stick to that shape, relying on players like W. Osula, A. Elanga and Y. Wissa to provide pace and penetration. At the back, the presence of experienced defenders such as S. Botman, D. Burn and F. Schär offers aerial strength, but the team’s overall defensive record suggests the structure in front of them still needs refinement.

Hull City Possible Starting Lineup

GK options: J. Butland, Archie Howard, D. Phillips, K. Tzolakis; Defenders: S. Ajayi, S. Ashbee, L. Coyle, J. Egan, R. Giles, L. Herrington, C. Hughes, P. McNair, N. Mendy, B. Norton-Cuffy, M. Targett; Midfielders: M. Crooks, K. Dowell, L. Gourna-Douath, D. Gyabi, J. Hjertø-Dahl, T. Iroegbunam, E. Matazo, C. Mouzakitis, A. Ömür, R. Slater, E. Stroud, Óscar Steven Zambrano Preciado, H. Morita, M. Belloumi, M. Cho; Attackers: Ilyas Ansah, D. Daley, J. Gelhardt, O. McBurnie, S. Thomas, R. Vaz.

Hull City have consistently lined up in a 5-4-1, and that is unlikely to change at St. James’ Park. The back five, supported by hard-working midfielders like H. Morita and the creative influence of M. Belloumi, has delivered 3 clean sheets in 4 games. Up front, O. McBurnie provides a focal point for long balls and crosses, allowing Hull to relieve pressure and bring runners into play on the counter.

Newcastle Team News

No significant absences reported.

Hull City Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Newcastle:

  • None reported.

Hull City:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Newcastle vs Hull City

Exactly 3 distinct betting angles stand out for this fixture based on current stats and prices.

  • Result Tip: Back Hull City or Draw (Double Chance). The prediction model rates Newcastle’s win probability at just 10%, with 45% each for draw and Hull victory, while Hull are unbeaten and defensively strong. Double chance on Hull counters Newcastle’s short home odds (home win priced between 1.53 and 1.63, implying around 61–65% market probability) and leans into Hull’s resilience.
  • Goals Tip: Under 2.5 goals. Newcastle average 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded per game, but Hull’s matches are tighter: 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded on average, with 3 clean sheets. Their defensive structure and 5-4-1 system suggest a controlled, low-scoring contest. Look for the Under 2.5 goals line in the goals markets at available odds.
  • Value Tip: M. Belloumi to score or assist. With 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 appearances, plus 8 shots and 3 key passes, Belloumi is directly involved in most of Hull’s attacking output. Any player performance market offering value on Belloumi goal contribution could be an attractive option, especially given Newcastle’s 8 goals conceded in 4 games.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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