Noche UFC 4: Matchmaking Insights and Future Fights
Mexico’s Independence Day card has quietly become one of the UFC’s most reliable annual showcases. Noche UFC 4 didn’t deliver a finish-fest, but it did something more important for the matchmakers: it drew clear lines for what comes next.
Now the real fights begin—on paper.
Jean Silva: From Surviving to Hunting – Yair Rodriguez Awaits
Jean Silva had to walk through fire before he could celebrate.
For a round and a half, Jose Delgado made him pay for every step forward. The fellow Dana White’s Contender Series product tagged him, tested him, and made the Brazilian work just to stay in the argument. Then the tide turned.
Once Silva finally settled, “Lord” did what he usually does when he finds his rhythm. He took the back, locked the body triangle, and forced the issue. The rear-naked choke came at 2:57 of Round 3, his 16th finish in 18 wins, and a reminder that even on a rough night he’s a problem at 145.
That win should now drag an old booking out of cold storage.
Silva vs. Yair Rodriguez was supposed to headline this very event before Rodriguez withdrew injured. Stylistically, it still crackles: Silva’s aggression and finishing instincts against Rodriguez’s wild, elastic striking and big-fight experience. One is surging, the other trying to prove he’s still a factor at the elite level.
The matchup was good then. After Silva’s comeback choke, it’s even better now.
Brandon Moreno: One More War, One More Name – Enter Kyoji Horiguchi
Brandon Moreno doesn’t really do quiet nights.
His split-decision win over Joseph Morales was another 15-minute scrap, the kind of fight that leaves both men marked up and the scorecards nervy. Two judges sided with “The Assassin Baby,” and Glendale again played the role of lucky city for the former two-time flyweight champion, just as it did at UFC 263.
Moreno is 24-10-2 now, with a 13-7-2 mark in the UFC, and his résumé at 125 pounds is as deep as anyone’s. That’s why his next move shouldn’t be a climb; it should be a crossover.
Kyoji Horiguchi is the name that makes sense.
The former two-division Rizin champion and Bellator titleholder remains one of the most respected flyweights of his era. He’s coming off a loss to Manel Kape and needs a high-profile fight to reassert himself. Moreno, with his championship pedigree and fanbase, provides exactly that.
Yes, this is a fight that would have been perfect two or three years ago. It still carries weight now. Two veterans, two belts’ worth of history between them, one chance to prove who still belongs in the very top tier at 125.
Tommy McMillen: Prospect No More – Losene Keita Is the Test
Tommy McMillen didn’t get the finish. He got something more valuable.
Against Marwan Rahiki, another DWCS product, the undefeated featherweight prospect had to show he could win minutes, not just moments. Over three rounds, McMillen leaned on pace, discipline and a clean striking game to secure a unanimous decision and move to 12-0, 3-0 in the UFC.
Rahiki refused to go away. McMillen refused to let the fight slip. That’s what you want to see from a rising contender.
On the mic, he asked for Dec. 12. If the schedule allows, the opponent should be Losene Keita.
Keita arrived in the UFC with serious buzz as a former two-division Oktagon MMA champion and backed it up with a first-round knockout at UFC Paris. He’s explosive, dangerous early, and already feels like a man destined for big-name fights.
McMillen vs. Keita is inevitable. The only real question is whether the UFC wants to find out now which of them is ready to jump the queue at 145.
Alexa Grasso: Back in Line, Back in Range – Title Shot or Bust
Alexa Grasso didn’t stroll back into contention. She had to grind her way there.
Against Manon Fiorot, the former flyweight champion had to solve a tricky, mobile striker who has made a career out of shutting down opponents’ offense. Grasso did enough over three rounds to convince all three judges, taking a unanimous decision and pushing her record to 18-5-1, with a 10-5-1 slate in the UFC.
It wasn’t spectacular. It was important.
Valentina Shevchenko is sidelined with injury. Natalia Silva and Cong Wang will battle in the UFC 332 main event on Oct. 3, and the winner is expected to plant a flag at the top of the division. Yet the most logical next title challenger is already there, waiting.
Grasso is on a two-fight win streak, a former champion who has proven she can handle the pressure of the big stage. She has history with Shevchenko, name value with fans, and now a fresh high-level win in a division short on clear, healthy contenders.
She’ll be watching Silva vs. Wang closely. Whoever emerges with the belt should expect to see Grasso across the cage soon after.
Curtis Blaydes: Still the Gate, Not the Door – Serghei Spivac Makes Sense
Heavyweights promised stakes. They didn’t promise entertainment.
Curtis Blaydes outpointed Waldo Cortes-Acosta over three subdued rounds, earning a unanimous decision in a fight that did little to stir the crowd but preserved his status near the top of the division. Blaydes is now 20-6 with 1 no contest, and 15-6 with 1 no contest in the UFC.
He continues to alternate wins and losses, a pattern that keeps him relevant but stalls any serious title charge. On this form, he shouldn’t be anywhere near a championship bout. What he can be, again, is the man you must beat to prove you belong in the top five.
That’s where Serghei Spivac comes in.
Spivac, 18-7 and 9-7 in the UFC, has quietly built a reputation as a smothering grappler with improving stand-up. He’s never faced Blaydes, and the stylistic clash is obvious: “The Polar Bear” against one of the division’s most relentless wrestlers.
If Spivac can handle Blaydes’ takedowns, he moves from dark horse to genuine contender. If Blaydes shuts him down, he keeps his grip on that gatekeeper role a little longer.
David Martinez: Eleven Straight – Mario Bautista for the Breakthrough
David Martinez didn’t dazzle the crowd. He dominated the margins.
Welcoming longtime featherweight Dan Ige down to 135, “Black Spartan” leaned on sharp, accurate striking and constant pressure to earn a unanimous decision and stretch his win streak to 11. The audience may not have loved the tempo, but the judges had no doubts.
Martinez is now 15-1, 4-0 in the UFC, and the Contender Series graduate has outgrown the “prospect” label. It’s time to see if he can swim with the sharks at bantamweight.
Mario Bautista is the right shark.
At 18-3 with a 12-3 UFC record, Bautista is coming off back-to-back wins, including a statement victory in his rematch with Cory Sandhagen at UFC 329. He’s proven, durable and dangerous, exactly the kind of opponent who exposes holes or confirms hype.
Match Martinez with Bautista, and you don’t just get a quality fight. You get a de facto eliminator. The winner steps to the edge of title contention in one of the sport’s deepest divisions.
On a night built to celebrate a nation, Noche UFC 4 quietly built the next few months of matchmaking. Now it’s up to the UFC to turn these obvious next steps into signed bouts—and up to the winners to prove that this card was the start of something bigger, not the peak.
