Portugal Begins Nations League Defense with Ronaldo and Jesus
The trophy sits in their cabinet twice already. Portugal, kings of the UEFA Nations League in 2019 and again in 2025, open another campaign on Thursday night with a familiar expectation: win, and win well.
Wales arrive in Lisbon as underdogs, depleted and still nursing the bruise of missing the 2026 World Cup. Portugal, by contrast, step into a new chapter under Jorge Jesus – but with one very old storyline still running. Cristiano Ronaldo starts. At 41.
A new era, same ruthless ambition
Jorge Jesus took the reins on July 10 after Roberto Martinez’s departure in the wake of the 2026 World Cup. His in-tray was hardly light: guide a golden generation into its late prime, refresh the structure of the side, and keep Portugal at the sharp end of every tournament they enter.
The last competitive memory still stings. Spain, eventual world champions, edged Portugal 1-0 in the last 16 in 2026. That defeat was Portugal’s first since November 2025, a jarring reminder that even a well-oiled machine can be shut down on the biggest stage.
Yet in the Nations League, this team carry an aura. They won the inaugural edition in 2018-19, beating Netherlands 1-0 in the final. They reclaimed the crown in 2024-25, this time on penalties against Spain. No one has mastered this competition quite like them.
Group 4 of League A now offers a fresh test: Wales, Denmark and Norway, home and away, with a quarter-final spot on the line. After Wales, Portugal travel to Norway before October brings Denmark away and Norway at home. It is a demanding run, but also a chance for Jesus to stamp his identity quickly.
Ronaldo stays, the core remains
Ronaldo’s inclusion in Jesus’s first squad tells its own story. His international future looked fragile after that loss to Spain at the World Cup, whispers growing that 146 goals might be where the record stopped. Not yet.
He is expected to lead the line from the first whistle, still the reference point in a side packed with creative support. Behind him, the structure looks familiar rather than experimental.
Diogo Costa is set to keep goal, with Joao Cancelo and Ruben Dias anchoring the back line alongside Antonio Silva Veiga and Nuno Mendes. In midfield, Vitinha, Joao Neves and Bruno Fernandes provide a blend of control, energy and incision. Ahead of them, Pedro Neto and Joao Felix are poised to work the spaces around Ronaldo.
This is not a night for surprises. It is a night for authority.
Portugal possible starting XI: Costa; Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes; Vitinha, J Neves; Neto, Fernandes, Felix; Ronaldo
Wales back at the top table, but stretched
Wales return to League A with pride, but also with problems. Their promotion from League B in 2024-25 was hard-earned, a reminder that they can still punch above their weight in this format. Across 22 Nations League games, they have collected 10 wins, five draws and seven defeats – a respectable record for a nation constantly rebuilding.
The recent past, though, has been sobering. They failed to reach the 2026 World Cup, falling to Bosnia-Herzegovina in the playoff semi-finals in March. Since then, Craig Bellamy’s side have drawn friendlies with Northern Ireland and Ghana before slipping to a 2-1 defeat against Romania.
Now they head to face the most decorated side in the competition without a clutch of important players.
Harry Wilson, Nathan Broadhead and Karl Darlow have all withdrawn through injury, forcing late call-ups for David Cornell, Joe Taylor and Charlie Savage. Wales are also missing Joe Rodon, Dylan Lawlor, Rubin Colwill and Isaak Davies, stripping depth from both defence and attack.
The burden in the final third falls heavily on Daniel James, David Brooks and Brennan Johnson. Bellamy is likely to push James through the middle, using his pace to stretch Portugal’s back line and hope for mistakes rather than extended spells of control.
Wales possible starting XI: Ward; N Williams, Cabango, Norrington-Davies, Dasilva; Ampadu, J James; Brooks, Thomas, Johnson; D James
History, form and the weight of the occasion
The head-to-head record offers Wales little comfort. Four meetings, just one win – and that came in a friendly back in May 1951. The only competitive clash between the nations came on a much grander stage: the Euro 2016 semi-final, where goals from Cristiano Ronaldo and Nani carried Portugal to a 2-0 victory and, eventually, to the title.
Form lines favour the hosts as well. Portugal’s recent run across all competitions reads: WDWDWL – a single defeat in six, that lone blemish against the best team on the planet. Wales’ sequence, by contrast, is WWLDDL, momentum checked just when they needed it most.
Wales step up a level here. League A, away to the holders, without several key figures. The Dragons will scrap, they always do, but the margin for error shrinks in nights like this.
Portugal, at home, with their spine intact and Ronaldo still chasing more history, carry a different kind of pressure: not just to win, but to look every inch like champions defending their crown.
Prediction: Portugal 3-1 Wales.
If that proves accurate, the story will not be about whether Portugal can still dominate this competition. It will be about how far this new Jesus-led era can go with a 41-year-old icon still at its heart.
